For today's MLB best player prop bets, we will be diving into the MLB home run betting market.
While Monday does, as always, feature a travel day in the MLB with a lighter slate of games, there are still ample props to dive into. As for today, we have three MLB home run predictions to lock in.
Corey Seager Home Run (+390) FanDuel
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET
Seager has been absolutely on fire recently, hitting a home run yesterday after hitting two on Friday, and we have seen him go on multiple home run binges this season, so he is definitely worth continuing to play as long as the matchup is there.
As for today, the matchup is definitely there against Hunter Brown of the Astros. First, though, let's elaborate on how hot Seager has been. Below are his advanced stats over his last 11 games:
- .391 batting average
- .696 slugging
- .463 wOBA
- 1.104 OPS
- .304 ISO rate
- 16.7% barrel rate
- 66.7% HardHit rate
- 96.9 mph average exit velocity
He is red-hot, and we have seen multiple examples of what Seager can do when he is red-hot, including a stretch at the end of May when he hit eight home runs in eight games. His season-long stats are not horrible -- but will not wow you either -- as he has suffered through cold spells in between his heaters.
With that said, you want to target Seager against righties, as his ISO rate against RHP is .255, up from .125 against LHP. Brown is a righty who Seager should have the advantage against. His two most common pitches thrown are 4-seam fastballs and cutters. Those are the pitches Seager hits best, with an ISO rate of .286 against 4-seamers and .351 against cutters.
Willson Contreras Home Run (+420) BetRivers
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals, 5:15 p.m. ET
Contreras also has a matchup advantage against Sean Manaea of the Mets. For starters, Manaea is a left-handed pitcher and Contreras is a bit better against lefties. His splits are not quite as dramatic as Seager's, but Contreras's ISO rate against LHP is .246, up from .214 against RHP, while all of his stats -- from batting average to wOBA -- are superior against left-handed pitching.
Manaea, meanwhile, has his fly-ball rate increase 16% going from lefties to righties, with a fly-ball rate of 29.3% against LHH that goes up to 45.9% against RHH. It is more than just the handedness that creates the advantage for Contreras, though, it is the pitch-mix as well. Manaea predominantly throws sinkers as his most frequent pitch, and Contreras absolutely crushes that pitch.
He has an ISO rate of .471 against sinkers, hitting .412 overall with a .882 slugging, 1.417 OPS and .576 wOBA against sinkers. In fact, he has the second-best slugging and fourth-best wOBA against sinkers in all of baseball.
Sinkers are not home run-type pitches for most batters, but Contreras hammers them, which makes this a great matchup for him. Given these tendencies, it makes sense that Contreras has hammered Manaea in his career, hitting him for two home runs and two doubles in only six at-bats.
Ketel Marte Home Run (+500) BetMGM
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians, 6:40 p.m. ET
Ketel Marte is another batter that is absolutely on fire, and he has as good of a matchup today as you could possibly imagine. He is similar to Seager in that he has hit three home runs in his last three games, also hitting one yesterday and two on Friday. Since MLB returned from the All-Star break on July 19, he has hit a total of eight home runs, with a ridiculous .439 ISO rate and 17.4% barrel rate in that stretch. He is mashing the baseball, and he has an excellent matchup to continue mashing today against Cleveland's Logan Allen.
Marte is one of the best fastball hitters in MLB, while also being one of the best hitters against left-handed pitching, and today he is going up against a lefty who throws a 4-seam fastball 38.8% of the time. His ISO rate is .325 against lefties, all the way up from .208 against RHP. That .325 ISO rate against lefties is the fifth-best in MLB specifically against left-handed pitching. Marte is also one of the best 4-seam fastball hitters in MLB, as mentioned earlier.
He has the seventh-highest run value added specifically against 4-seamers, according to BaseballSavant, with the 14th-highest HardHit rate as well. His ISO rate against this pitch is .267, and he hits .356 with a .622 slugging, 1.053 OPS and .443 wOBA against it.
After fastballs, Allen throws a slider 18.5% of the time and a cutter 15% of the time, and Marte has good stats against both of those pitches as well. Marte should be able to stay hot today against Allen and hit one yard for us.
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